1212 Twin Lake Cir SW

Hartselle, AL 35640

$230,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,032/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#32 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hartselle City (other): math 41% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #10 of 129 in AL (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crestline Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 550 students, 49% FRL); Hartselle Junior High School (math 33% / reading 63%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 527 students, 38% FRL); Hartselle High School (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #18 of 305 statewide, top 6%, 1,031 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Hartselle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.