30 Ridge Ln

Housatonic, MA 12529

$695,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,688 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$877
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-2,771/mo
• Annual: $-33,254/yr
• Cap rate: 1.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.09%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (70.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (68.1% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($632k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (70.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#236 in MA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $695k implies a 969% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.