9569 Outlook Dr

Overland Park, KS 66207

$219,950D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1966 · Townhouse · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$585
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,123/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $61,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#16 in KS, #1,851 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Shawnee Mission Pub Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #22 of 169 in KS (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Diemer Elem (math 56% / reading 62%, grade B-, #81 of 684 statewide, top 12%, 401 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shawnee Mission Pub Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Overland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.