5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,070 sqft ·
Built 1895
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,572/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,141
Tax + insurance
−$669
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$960
Net cashflow
$-199/mo
Annual
$-2,388/yr
Cap rate
5.89%
Cash-on-cash
-1.42%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$167,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $564k (5.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $457k (23.7% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $457k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Prescott Elementary (107 students, 92% FRL); West Oakland Middle (178 students, 99% FRL); Mcclymonds High (281 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 68% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $157k; list at $599k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,572/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 2002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ECXQYS074XY2ST
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29