508 63rd Avenue Dr W

Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$264,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $872/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($872/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blanche H. Daughtrey Elementary (math 50% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 758 students, 69% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,069/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 1474% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.