821 Commerce Blvd

Riverdale, GA 30296

$199,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,836/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-262/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-262/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#100 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $199k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.