1430 Thieriot Ave Unit 5L

New York, NY 10460

$310,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1960 · Condo · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,538/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$1,180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $-594/mo
• Annual: $-7,127/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $305k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 214 (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,418 of 2,108 statewide, top 68%, 836 students, 92% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,538/mo this rent would consume 117% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 7852% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen countertops — The countertops appear dated and could be replaced for a fresh look.
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — The fixtures in the bathrooms appear dated and could be updated for a more modern look.