16 Peconic Bay Ave

North Sea, NY 11968

$3,895,000F

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,500 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,426
• Tax + insurance: −$6,492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,026
• Net cashflow: $-8,011/mo
• Annual: $-96,131/yr
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $1,090,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $3.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-96k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.74M (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.39M (38.6% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.39M (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $117k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $850k; list at $3.90M implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $23,932/mo this rent would consume 184% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.