5228 Bogus Rd

Gainesville, GA 30506

$295,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2026 · Other · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $218/mo
• Annual: $2,622/yr
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Hall County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #81 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wauka Mountain Elementary School (math 49% / reading 56%, grade C-, #219 of 1,228 statewide, top 18%, 558 students, 27% FRL); North Hall Middle School (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D, #103 of 470 statewide, top 23%, 822 students, 31% FRL); North Hall High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 1,138 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 53% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.7% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.