159 Tilley

Leesville, LA 71446

$85,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $566/mo
• Annual: $6,786/yr
• Cap rate: 14.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.35%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $23,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#30 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 7.3% in Leesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.