3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,189/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$460
Net cashflow
$347/mo
Annual
$4,168/yr
Cap rate
8.38%
Cash-on-cash
7.44%
DSCR
1.33
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#598 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, cost of living F.
Rialto Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #268 of 517 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Georgia F. Morris Elementary (617 students, 81% FRL); William G. Jehue Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,404 students, 82% FRL); Rialto High (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 2,886 students, 82% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Rialto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EDXQ96A0ZKNA9Z
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29