12616 S 205th Ave

Gretna, NE 68028

$347,990D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,386/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-151/mo
• Annual: $-1,810/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $97,437

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#13 in NE, #1,227 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gretna Public Schools (suburban): math 64% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #6 of 111 in NE (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Squire John Thomas Elementary (math 58% / reading 65%, grade B, #106 of 502 statewide, top 21%, 390 students, 15% FRL); Gretna Middle School (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 728 students, 14% FRL); Gretna High School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B-, #37 of 261 statewide, top 14%, 1,729 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.