3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,880 sqft ·
Built 2015
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,550/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,581
Tax + insurance
−$544
HOA
−$60
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$536
Net cashflow
$-171/mo
Annual
$-2,046/yr
Cap rate
5.61%
Cash-on-cash
-2.42%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$84,420
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $302k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (10.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (15.4% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $255k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#37 in MD, #1,338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EESRXE1Y0YMCPW
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29