2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built 1988
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,895/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$386
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$398
Net cashflow
$220/mo
Annual
$2,640/yr
Cap rate
7.85%
Cash-on-cash
5.55%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#139 in TX, #3,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Port Neches-Groves ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Port Neches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EFM2652S58GHWN
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29