2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 1993
· Manufactured
· Active
· 139 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,441/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$380
Tax + insurance
−$121
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$637/mo
Annual
$7,645/yr
Cap rate
16.84%
Cash-on-cash
37.66%
DSCR
2.68
1% rule
1.99%
Cash to close
$20,300
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Cottonwood Community School (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EFPS7R9D9G8NFW
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29