2609 Canelo Dr

Laredo, TX 78046

$120,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $413/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($413/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#227 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Franklin D Roosevelt El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 653 students, 95% FRL); Los Obispos Middle (math 32% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 716 students, 94% FRL); Lyndon B Johnson (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 3,252 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 72% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 485 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Laredo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.