212 Fillmore Ave

Grand Forks, ND 58201

$44,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $782/mo
• Annual: $9,381/yr
• Cap rate: 27.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.29%
• DSCR: 4.35
• 1% rule: 3.10%
• Cash to close: $12,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in ND, #2,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Grand Forks 1 (urban): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #27 of 53 in ND (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 133 units permitted in Grand Forks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grand Forks County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 2.2% in Grand Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Severe peeling and weathering
• Major: Carpeted flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major: Paint — Faded and uneven, needs repainting