50 Hamlin Sq Unit H

Williamsville, NY 14221

$229,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$479
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,452/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (9.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?