7-9 Elm St

Waterbury, VT 05676

$389,000B+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,726 sqft · Built 1875 · MultiFamily · Pending · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$1,109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $1,117/mo
• Annual: $13,408/yr
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.38%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $389k).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#47 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $389k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.