2192 Meadow Dr

Barnhart, MO 63012

$245,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-25/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-25/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (18.6% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Windsor C-1 (suburban): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #154 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James E. Freer Elem. (280 students, 33% FRL); Windsor Middle (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 659 students, 35% FRL); Windsor High (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 908 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $245k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Barnhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.