9925 Friendship Rd

Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23128

$295,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-687/mo
• Annual: $-8,247/yr
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.98%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (41.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (52.1% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (52.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Botetourt Elementary (math 66% / reading 73%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 546 students, 47% FRL); Peasley Middle (math 53% / reading 74%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 620 students, 37% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $295k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.