12 Laudaten Way

Warwick, NY 10990

$409,900D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,601 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$854
• HOA: −$340
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-883/mo
• Annual: $-10,595/yr
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.23%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $114,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-883 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#282 in NY, #4,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 482 students, 22% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $410k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.