5450 Longwood Run Blvd #103

Desoto Lakes, FL 34243

$179,985D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 954 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Pending · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,058/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$520
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-627/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $50,396

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-627/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (5.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#189 in FL, #3,003 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.1%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Desoto Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.