13895 Church Rd

Armada, MI 48002

$200,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,260/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#125 in MI, #3,093 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Armada Area Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #48 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $200k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Armada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.