156 Churchwell Rd

Cochran, GA 31014

$109,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $884/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $619/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($619/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#458 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bleckley County (rural): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #28 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Bleckley County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bleckley County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $110k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.5% in Cochran — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.