N/A Martinez Rd

Terlingua, TX 79852

$98,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 435 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,022/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,562/yr
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 435 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Jim Hogg County ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #622 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hebbronville El (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 508 students, 85% FRL); Hebbronville J H (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 240 students, 88% FRL); Hebbronville H S (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 324 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 39% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jim Hogg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 435 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior paint — Peeling paint
• Major: Exterior roof — Exposed beams
• Major: Interior walls — Exposed beams
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed beams
• Major: Landscaping — Desert landscape