9275 E Chestnut Hill Ave

Dewey-Humboldt, AZ 86327

$164,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $454/mo
• Annual: $5,442/yr
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.79%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granville Elementary School (math 33% / reading 43%, grade F, #427 of 1,109 statewide, top 39%, 514 students, 49% FRL); Bradshaw Mountain Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 280 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.4% in Dewey-Humboldt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.