5035 Gray St

North Rose, NY 14516

$172,500D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$363
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-895/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-895/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (12.5% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#904 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• North Rose-Wolcott Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #514 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Rose-Wolcott Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 417 students, 60% FRL); North Rose-Wolcott Middle School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #537 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 343 students, 62% FRL); North Rose-Wolcott High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 367 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.