2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
564 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,584/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$260
Tax + insurance
−$80
HOA
−$207
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$333
Net cashflow
$704/mo
Annual
$8,450/yr
Cap rate
23.36%
Cash-on-cash
60.97%
DSCR
3.71
1% rule
3.20%
Cash to close
$13,860
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings Elem (math 49% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 460 students, 67% FRL); Pinellas Park Middle School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,126 students, 67% FRL); Dixie M. Hollins High School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,822 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $6k; list at $50k implies a 725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 4.1% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29