5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,248 sqft ·
Built 1895
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 269 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,504/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$380
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$-235/mo
Annual
$-2,822/yr
Cap rate
4.87%
Cash-on-cash
-5.06%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (20.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.4% below list).
It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Johnstown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EKWCF79S0SWSA1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29