605 Mineral Ave

Mineral, VA 23117

$339,500D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,450 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,780
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,868/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $95,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $340k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.