191 Mahoney Rd

Dunlap, TN 37327

$289,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-613/mo
• Annual: $-7,355/yr
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (51.3% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (51.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#264 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sequatchie County (rural): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #95 of 139 in TN (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Sequatchie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sequatchie County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $193k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.4% in Dunlap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.