4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 285 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,891/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$817
Net cashflow
$1,796/mo
Annual
$21,548/yr
Cap rate
17.94%
Cash-on-cash
41.60%
DSCR
2.85
1% rule
2.10%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#240 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 517 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 2.2% in Anaheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,891/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2171% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint on exterior siding
— The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor wear.
Minor: Paint on interior walls
— The interior walls appear to be in good condition, but a fresh coat of paint could improve the overall aesthetic.
Minor: Flooring in living areas
— The flooring in the living areas appears to be in fair condition but could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or a new finish.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EMHH317JF4WTRV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29