3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,536 sqft ·
Built 1901
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 135 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,388/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$143
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$292
Net cashflow
$-95/mo
Annual
$-1,137/yr
Cap rate
5.72%
Cash-on-cash
-2.03%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (30.6% below list).
It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $139k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#136 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Blair Oaks R-II (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #3 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Blair Oaks Elem. (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #11 of 1,115 statewide, top 1%, 218 students, 9% FRL); Blair Oaks Middle School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade A-, #5 of 391 statewide, top 2%, 264 students, 8% FRL); Blair Oaks High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #16 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 457 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 56 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29