8087 Keeton

Ilchester, MD 21075

$154,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $1,376/mo
• Annual: $16,513/yr
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.07%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#269 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Howard County Public Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #1 of 24 in MD (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 129 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 881 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (285 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howard County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.8% in Ilchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Paint — Significant chipping and wear in the living room.
• Major: Flooring — Significant wear and tear in the living room and kitchen.
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear in the kitchen.
• Major: Bathroom vanity — Significant wear and tear in the bathroom.
• Major: HVAC ductwork — Significant wear and tear in the HVAC ductwork.
• Major: Exterior siding — Significant discoloration and wear in the exterior siding.