2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,499 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,885/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$396
Net cashflow
$259/mo
Annual
$3,110/yr
Cap rate
7.89%
Cash-on-cash
5.70%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (3.3% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $189k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fountain Hill El Sch (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,180 of 1,518 statewide, top 80%, 513 students, 86% FRL); Broughal Ms (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #447 of 512 statewide, top 88%, 500 students, 88% FRL); Liberty Hs (math 36% / reading 10%, grade F, #382 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 2,640 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bethlehem Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EN9G6N47KMPSY8
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29