16707 State Highway 180 Lot 40

Gulf Shores, AL 36542

$159,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,293/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,303/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1704 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 0.4% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.