718 Aspen Ave

Milan, NM 87021

$70,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$543
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-22/yr
• Cap rate: 13.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.00%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-22/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#144 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, amenities F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Milan Elementary (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #34 of 68 statewide, top 54%, 436 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Boarded-up windows — Structural damage
• Major: Missing siding — Exterior damage