220 Kingsbury Ave

Elmira, NY 14901

$160,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-225/mo
• Annual: $-2,696/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 10223% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?