4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,106 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 57 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,693/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$200
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$377/mo
Annual
$4,524/yr
Cap rate
9.41%
Cash-on-cash
11.14%
DSCR
1.50
1% rule
1.17%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $90k; list at $145k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EPDBRKAJ6S9KPN
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29