7125 W Windy Ln

Orange, TX 77630

$34,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,662/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $944/mo
• Annual: $11,333/yr
• Cap rate: 41.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.42%
• DSCR: 6.67
• 1% rule: 4.89%
• Cash to close: $9,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $944 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $578 of equity ($235 loan paydown + $343 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Orangefield ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #217 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orangefield El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 873 students, 39% FRL); Orangefield J H (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 434 students, 34% FRL); Orangefield H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 549 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 42.0% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.