4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,346 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,694/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,874
Tax + insurance
−$1,154
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$776
Net cashflow
$-1,109/mo
Annual
$-13,306/yr
Cap rate
3.86%
Cash-on-cash
-8.67%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$153,440
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $548k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (35.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (32.6% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $352k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#175 in IL, #3,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lake Zurich CUSD 95 (suburban): math 47% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #44 of 620 in IL (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Seth Paine Elem School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #457 of 2,056 statewide, top 24%, 461 students, 0% FRL); Lake Zurich Middle - N Campus (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #101 of 665 statewide, top 16%, 704 students, 0% FRL); Lake Zurich High School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C, #25 of 693 statewide, top 4%, 1,804 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $370k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EQ9ZSM1PTAQ3NM
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29