4892 Woodcastle Dr

Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$115,000C+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 285 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $309/mo
• Annual: $3,703/yr
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $115k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.