39887 Village Wood Ln

Novi, MI 48375

$174,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 835 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,737/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-925/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Novi Community School District (urban): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #7 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Village Oaks Elementary School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #105 of 1,397 statewide, top 9%, 538 students, 19% FRL); Novi High School (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A-, #8 of 713 statewide, top 1%, 2,101 students, 11% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $925; list at $174k implies a 18765% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.7% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?