37 Mcmurdy Brook Rd

Hobart, NY 13788

$165,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,454 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,330/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-748/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-748/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#968 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• South Kortright Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #558 of 755 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $165k implies a 602% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.2% in Hobart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.