3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,420 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,250/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$159
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$262
Net cashflow
$95/mo
Annual
$1,140/yr
Cap rate
7.11%
Cash-on-cash
2.91%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (10.7% below list).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#327 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Miami (town): math 17% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #194 of 270 in OK (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Washington Es (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 256 students, 0% FRL); Miami Hs (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #314 of 447 statewide, top 72%, 438 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 62% district-wide (62 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Ottawa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ottawa County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $110k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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