3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,287 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,428/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$665
Tax + insurance
−$212
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$300
Net cashflow
$251/mo
Annual
$3,015/yr
Cap rate
8.67%
Cash-on-cash
8.48%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$35,532
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $123k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $877 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Glenwood Leadership Academy (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #909 of 994 statewide, top 92%, 416 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint on exterior siding
— Slight discoloration
Minor: Paint on interior walls
— Worn appearance
Minor: Landscaping
— Needs trimming and mulching
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· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29