3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,794 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 307 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,192/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,389
Tax + insurance
−$459
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$460
Net cashflow
$-117/mo
Annual
$-1,399/yr
Cap rate
5.76%
Cash-on-cash
-1.89%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$74,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (7.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (17.2% below list).
It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $219k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Olmito El (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 575 students, 69% FRL); Resaca Middle (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 857 students, 77% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29