3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
988 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,238/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$421
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$470
Net cashflow
$167/mo
Annual
$2,002/yr
Cap rate
7.18%
Cash-on-cash
3.18%
DSCR
1.14
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (0.5% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#508 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
United Twp Hsd 30 (suburban): math 12% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #536 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Rock Island County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rock Island County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $186k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ERVX981YYC1Y1G
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29