15118 Swallow Falls Way

Fishers, IN 46037

$310,540D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,706 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,371/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,656
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-309/mo
• Annual: $-3,704/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $88,408

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $311k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in IN, #898 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Hamilton Southeastern Schools (suburban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 301 in IN (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thorpe Creek Elementary (math 69% / reading 59%, grade B, #91 of 994 statewide, top 9%, 628 students, 10% FRL); Hamilton Se Int And Jr High Sch (math 50% / reading 60%, grade B-, #26 of 330 statewide, top 8%, 1,269 students, 13% FRL); Hamilton Southeastern Hs (math 66% / reading 85%, grade A-, #7 of 369 statewide, top 2%, 3,450 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Fishers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.